The rumblings have gone out:  possible IRR remobilization for my heading off to Afghanistan.  I’m going to a muster today.

I have some small amount of data about what to expect (and should you, O Unattributed Link-Victim, find said link distasteful, send a tell and I shall remove it).  But the Google is strangely silent on the particulars of which persons who are mustered, deploy.

The Odds Against:

1. Have already been personally screwed by Stop-Loss once.  Chances this will affect their decision to deploy me:  Slim.  At best, it shifts me further down the list.
2. Sheer Numbers.  I know for a fact we’re crankin’ my MOS out into the workforce at ridiculous speeds.  Further, the troop increase in the ‘Stan – 17,000ish? – is far lower than the decreases (if Maliki can slow the pace at which he’s ruining all our progress, so we can get the hell out of there) planned in Iraq.  Finally, it’s the economy.  In this market, the Army meets its recruitment objectives.
3. Time remaining.  If they stay true to “don’t deploy in the first year or last year” system the IRR reportedly attempts to uphold, I’m not eligible under any circumstances.  As in point 1..the theory is not sound.

The Odds For:

1. Maliki.  In my worst nightmare, the tar-baby sucks us right back into Iraq because we’re too damned proud of ourselves to admit that Iraq, as we keep trying to conjure with our various media lenses, just does not exist. The Awakening Movement is set to potentially restart the Sunni insurgency.
2. Which Ones?  If we’re talkin’ 17,000, as in three or four combat brigades, no real changes to personnel types…I’m not really sweating too heavily.  If we’re talking 17,000 in targeted MOS increases…uh. I’ll send you guys lots of pictures from Kabul.
3. Conspiracy Theory.  In a highly cynical, but thoroughly possible universe, the Obama administration has some sort of warning that either a) Iraqi explosion is imminent, not just likely; 2) Israel was being serious when it said it was gonna bomb Iran with or without us; or ω) Pakistan/North Korea/all of the above are on the horizon.  In this option, I’d be more interested in telling you guys which canned goods to stock up for Great World Depression War 2/III.

Update:  I have completed a Devil’s Bargain.  I will not be deploying again unless the Conspiracy Theory angle turns out to be correct.  I will, however, be forced to report for more regular polishings of the Dark Lord Below’s cloven hooves.  For the Magpie, I am prepared to make such compromises.